Forecast For The Week Ahead

Using the "backcasting" method to model the difference between the ground truth and the available report helps close the gap between the update-ignorant method. The magnitude of the performance differences depends on the target and forecast week. Differences in mean scores for the short-term targets are small and may be reasonably explained by random chance alone; the largest potential difference appears to be an improvement in the "1 wk ahead" target by using backcasting. The magnitude of the mean log score improvement depends in part on the resolution of the log score bins; for example, wider bins for "Season peak percentage" may reduce the improvement in mean log score . Similarly, the differences in scores may be reduced but not eliminated by use of multibin scores for evaluation or ensembles incorporating uniform components for forecasting. A much cooler and fresher day tomorrow with a mix of sunny spells and heavy showers, with the risk of thunder.

Highest temperatures falling back to around normal for the time of year at 12 to 15 degrees in moderate to fresh southwest winds. A much cooler and fresher day tomorrow with a mix of sunny spells and heavy showers, with the risk of thunderstorms. Highest temperatures falling back to around normal for the time of year at 12 to 15 degrees in moderate to fresh and gusty southwest winds. A much cooler and fresher day with a mix of sunny spells and heavy showers, with the risk of thunder. Highest temperatures falling back to around normal for the time of year at 13 to 15 degrees in moderate to fresh southwest winds.

A low pressure system will cross the country at the start of this period, bringing heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms for all. Thereafter, further low pressure systems will affect the UK, particularly northwestern areas. This will bring organised bands of rain, heavy at times, interspersed with cooler and showery periods but some sunny spells too.

Drier and more settled conditions are likely across southern and eastern parts of the country, but there is still a chance that bands of rain and strong winds from the north and west could extend into these areas. The temperatures are most likely to be slightly below average for this time of the year during the start of the period, but will gradually return to near average later. Wednesday looks to be a drier day with sunny spells and a few scattered showers, mainly affecting northern parts. Highest temperatures of 10 to 13 degrees. However outbreaks of rain and blustery southerly winds look set to move in from the Atlantic on Wednesday evening and night. Early tonight, the last of the heavy rain will clear into the Irish Sea, to be followed by a mix of clear spells and scattered showers.

The showers mainly in the west where some will be heavy. Turning cooler with lowest temperatures of 7 to 10 degrees in light to moderate southerly winds. Outbreaks of light rain and drizzle affecting mainly parts of the north and east this morning, with some bright or sunny spells. Rain in the west and southwest this morning will gradually move eastwards through the day with some heavy or thundery downpours and the risk of spot flooding. Holding dry in some eastern areas until late afternoon. Blustery too with fresh and gusty southerly winds.

Highest temperatures of 16 to 20 degrees but becoming noticeably cooler from the west as the rain clears. Unibin log score of the delta density method with backcasting—Averaged across targets and seasons, broken down by location and epi week. Changeable or unsettled weather is forecast to continue through the week. All areas could see showers or longer spells of rain and at times it turns windy.

The driest and mildest conditions are expected to be in the south east, with more frequent spells of rain and lower temperatures in the north west. Unibin log score of the delta density method with backcasting—Averaged across targets and locations, broken down by season and epi week. The backcasting method is modular and can combine with any forecaster expecting ground truth wILI as input. The straightforward approach is to sample a few thousand trajectories from the backfill simulator, feed each of these into the forecaster to obtain a trajectory or a distribution over targets, and aggregate the results. Two important features of ILINet data to consider in models and forecast evaluation are 1.

Timeliness and accuracy of initial wILI values for each week and subsequent updates to these values, and 2. Changes in behavior on and around major holidays. We refer to the "unibin log score" simply as the "log score" except for when comparing it with the multibin log score, which is defined next.

The exponentiated mean log score is the average probability assigned to events that were actually observed. Rain will develop in the west and southwest this morning and will gradually move eastwards through the day, bringing some heavy downpours and the risk of spot flooding. However, some eastern areas will hold dry until late afternoon. Blustery with fresh and gusty southerly winds and highest temperatures of 15 to 19 degrees but becoming noticeably cooler from the west as the rain clears and the wind eases. Tonight, heavy rain in the east will gradually clear into the Irish Sea, followed by a mix of clear spells and a few scattered showers. Turning cooler with the clearance of the rain with lowest temperatures of 7 to 9 degrees in light southerly winds.

Today will start largely dry with bright spells in the north of the province, but it will turn cloudier by the afternoon with rain spreading to all parts by evening, becoming heavy at times. Blustery with fresh and gusty southerly winds. Clearer fresher conditions arriving in western areas in the evening.

Highest temperatures of 17 to 19 degrees. Early tonight, the rain will clear into the Irish Sea, to be followed by a mix of clear spells and scattered showers, mainly over the western half of the country where some will be heavy. Turning cooler with lowest temperatures of 6 to 9 degrees in light to moderate southerly winds, fresh on Atlantic coasts. We developed an adaptively weighted model average that consistently outperforms the best individual component.

Other teams submitting forecasts to the FluSight comparison have concurrently developed other ensemble systems and found similar success . Our approach is distinguished from these other methods in that it very directly estimates the best model average weights for a given location, time, target, and evaluation metric. Band of heavy rain and squally winds crossing most remaining areas, although the far southeast staying dry. Clearer, cooler weather following to the west and north, with scattered heavy showers.

Tuesday looks like being a pretty wet day overall with spells of rain, heavy at times especially in southern and later eastern parts. There is the risk of thundery downpours in parts too. Feeling cool with highest temperatures of 11 to 14 degrees in moderate southerly winds veering westerly and increasing strong at times near southern coasts. An area of low pressure will sweep in from the southwest through the day. Heavy rain for much of western Britain and across Ireland.

Most prolonged heavy falls focused on southern Scotland. Rain spreads east across England and Wales through the afternoon into evening. Northern Scotland escapes with little rain. Strong south to southwest winds, gusting gale force near coasts in south and west.

Mild in the south and east, up to 19C, cooler north and west, nearer 13C. The rest of the week and next weekend then looks set to be breezy or windy with further showers or longer spells of rain mixed in with some bright or sunny spells at times too. On Monday night, showers will become more confined to southern and western coastal areas through the night, with drier and clearer spells developing elsewhere. However, it will become cloudier across the country towards morning with more prolonged rain developing over Munster and south Connacht. Lowest temperatures of 6 to 10 degrees in moderate southwest winds, stronger near coasts.

- Following some added cloud cover and brief passing rain on Saturday, sunshine and dry conditions return Sunday and dominate through much of the upcoming week. At this point, Tuesday is the only day with a rain chance, and even that is looking slim. Meanwhile, after jumping ahead to more of a mid-October feel, temperatures will warm back to more seasonable levels appropriate of late September/early October.

These plots show sample forecasts of wILI trajectories generated from models that treat seasons as units and from models incorporating delta and residual density methods. The multibin log score was designed by FluSight hosts in consultation with participants, and the judgment "near observed value" was selected as a level of error that would not significantly impact policymakers' decisions. The exponentiated mean multibin log score is the average amount of mass a forecaster placed within this margin for error of observed target values. A frontal system is expected to pass east and south across England and Wales, producing a period of heavy rain for most places. This clears from the northwest, with sunny spells following.

Showers will rattle in to western Scotland and Ireland on a brisk westerly breeze. Risk of southwesterly gales for a time around the English Channel. The ensemble method matches or beats the best component overall, consistently improves log score across all times, and, for some sets of components, can provide significant improvements in both log score and mean absolute error. The delta density method conditions on real and simulated observations up to week u − 1 when building a probability distribution over the observation at week u.

High pressure overhead keeps rain at bay. Periods of high clouds drift in from showers ongoing well to the west. Highs in the mid to upper 70s – cooler at the beaches. Some patchy clouds early, otherwise mostly sunny.

Mild, highs in the mid to upper 70s – about 5-8 degrees above normal except cooler along the lakefront. As expected, showers made a fast exit by sunrise and we've enjoyed a sunny, cool Saturday. After a cool night, temperatures will head back above normal Sunday thanks to the return of south winds. And that's where we'll stay all week. Will the recent sunny and warm weather of late continue or will the temperature finally begin to cool down?

Here's the weather forecast for Yorkshire over the next six days. The cold front should be through the area by Sunday morning, during the afternoon on Sunday a second front will push through reinforcing the cooler air but more notably much less humid. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will struggle to get above 80 with very low humidity. This theme will continue through the week as we slowly warm up to near average by next weekend. Blustery showers with sunny spells are expected on Wednesday, with widespread rain forecast later in the day. For our day on Sunday, clear skies and plenty of sunshine are in store for us.

Again, starting off our day with cool conditions, with temperatures in the upper 50s but warming up to the mid 80s by the afternoon. This will be a similar story as we head into our work week. This front will usher in another strong taste of fall and drop temperatures into the 40s and low 50s by Sunday morning. Partly cloudy skies and lake-effect rain showers will be possible in the afternoon with highs in the 60s, but most of us stay dry. Besides an isolated lake shower things look good for any outdoor Fall activities, and even the Bill's game at Orchard Park. Still some fine, warm weather in southern and eastern areas, after early fog and low cloud lifts.

Isolated heavy afternoon showers in southeastern areas. Northwest Britain turning windy, with some heavy, squally bursts of rain, and cooler by evening. One area of low pressure drifts eastward into the North Sea and fizzles out. Early patchy rain and brisk winds in eastern Britain will fade.A brief ridge of high pressure will result in a dry day for much of England & Wales, although staying breezy. Another Atlantic low approaches from the west, bringing rain initially to Ireland, but reaching western Scotland through the afternoon. Tuesday night will become drier with showers largely confined to the west and north leaving good clear spells elsewhere.

Quite cool in moderate to fresh west to northwest winds and lowest temperatures of 5 to 8 degrees. Forecasting systems that select effective combinations of predictions from multiple models can improve on the performance of the individual components, as demonstrated by their successful application in many domains. Additional cross-validation analysis indicates that this approach achieves performance comparable to or better than the best individual component.

Details on the near-term weather forecast and the possible severe weather for the weekend. Brisk wind will develop in the northeast today, while the south and the west will see cloudy skies and rain. Temperatures on the chilly side, with maximum temperatures reaching 8 degrees Celsius . The first seven days of model predictions show significant skill.

Forecasts up to seven days out usually provide actionable weather forecast information. By the afternoon, there could be some sunny spells and the weather is set to feel mild, despite a fresh southwesterly wind, the Met Office said. Next week starts with low temperatures in the low 60s and highs reaching the mid-80s. Sunshine will also be the story as clear skies stay for the week ahead.

Pleasant fall weather will continue for our extended forecast, with cool mornings and warm afternoons, under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. We are also tracking newly formed Tropical Storm Sam in the Atlantic. This will be the perfect weekend to get outside, as mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies continue, with afternoon high temperatures in the upper 70s for Saturday, and around 80 degrees for Sunday. Rain and gusty winds across eastern areas, clearing all but Shetland by lunchtime. Sunny spells following but also scattered heavy shower especially towards the west. Feeling noticeably cooler and fresher.

Dry weather for many this weekend, but cooler and fresher conditions to come for the rest of the week. Partly cloudy with widely scattered thunderstorms. Dew point will be around 68F with an average humidity of 69%. Winds will be 7 mph from the NW.

Higher log scores indicated better performance. Each point is an average of 77 evaluations. This figure's data is included in tabular form in S2 Appendix. For every combination of target and forecast week, using ground truth as input rather than the appropriate version of these wILI observations produces either comparable or inflated performance estimates. Rain threat stays far to our west, though some clouds reach our area at times. Highs around 80 inland, low 70s lakefront.

A few passing clouds, otherwise sunny and warm. Afternoon temps reach the low-mid 80s. SW winds mph diminish in the afternoon. Cooler air arrives later in the day as winds turn NE. Like we saw today abundant sunshine will warm temperatures into the mid 80s Sunday afternoon.